Front Page|Our Services|Our Team|Client Center|Financial News|Events|Contact Us

Financial News

More Articles  Printer Friendly Version

 

A Tale Of Two Economies

It's not the best of times, nor the worst. But the latest data is a tale of two of U.S. economies.

From a record-high level in September 2018 of 61.3%, manufacturing activity has plunged. In July, manufacturing activity slipped further, to 51.2%, according to the newly released monthly survey data of purchasing managers from the Institute of Supply Management.

This data series is designed to signal a recession when it falls to less than 50%. At 51.2%, the manufacturing economy inched closer to indicating a recession could be on the horizon.

Meanwhile, the survey of purchasing managers at non-manufacturing companies, those in the service economy, declined to 53.7% in July. It too has plunged from its record level of 61.6% in September, but it's still well within its normal range.

The "Service Economy" is not gangbusters, like the tax-reform fueled peak in September 2018, but it's doing okay.

The service economy represents about 88% of U.S. growth. It's indicating growth is ahead, though less robust than a year ago.

Continued growth is confirmed by the survey of 60 economists conducted in early August by The Wall Street Journal.

The consensus forecast of 60 economic professionals for the next five quarters is for an average quarterly growth rate of 1.8%. That may seem paltry compared to the 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, but it aligns with the expected long-term growth rate of the non-partisan government forecast published by the Congressional Budget Office.

The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index of large public companies closed the week at 2,918.65, about 3% less than its all-time high.


This article was written by a veteran financial journalist based on data compiled and analyzed by independent economist, Fritz Meyer. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial or tax advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation. Tax laws are subject to change. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. No one can predict the future of the stock market or any investment, and past performance is never a guarantee of your future results.


Email this article to a friend


Index
Fickle Financial Headlines Brighten
Economy Gets Bad Press Again
Europe's Growth Problem And Your Portfolio
Stocks Dropped 2.6% On Friday, As Reality Gap Seemed To Widen
A Prudent Perspective On Recent Volatility
Amid Worries, New Equity Risk Premium Data Explained
GDP Rose More Than Expected; Stocks Top Record Again
Slower Growth Confirmed By June Leading Economic Indicators
Stocks Closed At A Record High; Should You Worry?
Amid Record Stock Prices, Fed Policy Is A Risk
Uncle Sam Delivers A Strong Economy
A Dramatic Pause, As Expansion Breaks Longevity Record
The Explosion In Real Retail Sales You Never Hear About
Amid Signs Of Weakness, Fed Reverses Course; Stocks Rally
Three Stories Affecting Your Wealth This Week

This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Vantage Point Financial Services, LLC and is not intended as legal or investment advice.

©2019 Advisor Products Inc. All Rights Reserved.
© 2019 Vantage Point Financial Services, LLC | 329 Regency Ridge Drive, , Centerville, OH 45459 | All rights reserved
P: 937-432-1111 | F: 937-432-1110 markblack@vantagepointadvisor.com |
Contact Us

Securities offered through First Allied Securities, Inc., A Registered Broker/Dealer, Member: FINRA / SIPC.
Advisory services are offered through First Allied Advisory Services, Inc., A Registered Investment Adviser.

This site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security which may be referenced herein. We suggest that you consult with your financial or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation. This site has been published in the United States for resident of the United States. Persons mentioned in this site may only transact business in states in which they have been properly registered or are exempt from registration.

Privacy Policy | ADV